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One Year Later

sp-bear-mkt-view-2009-09-14

Well, its been a year since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy (or it will be tomorrow).

You can see on the graph above that we’ve recovered a bit over half the crash that started with the government not rescuing Lehman Brothers through early March.

From a technical standpoint, you can see that all of the various short-term moving average lines have crossed their longer-term counterparts, and are all headed up. The safest thing is always to invest with a trend that is this strong.

That said, this weekend’s trade sanctions against China and their anticipated retaliation will likely move the market lower today. My biggest worry, though, is what impact it will have on the dollar…my assessment is that it will put further pressure on the dollar (if China needs less dollars due to a trade war, that equals less demand for dollars and they will go down).

Anyway, we’ll keep an eye on things and alert you if we see any change in the trend (like the shorter-term moving averages starting to cross down over the longer-term ones.

I’m off to an estate planning seminar.

Have a good Monday.

Mark